Bingo - The moving cache race for 2012/2013

Discussion about the Geocaching Australia web site
covert
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Re: Bingo - The moving cache race for 2012/2013

Post by covert » 05 December 12 4:53 pm

I wonder what state will be the first to fill a card out. Tassie is looking in good position at the moment.

Tuena
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Re: Bingo - The moving cache race for 2012/2013

Post by Tuena » 05 December 12 6:08 pm

Gerry & The Pacemakers have shown us how to get around your legislation.

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Richary
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Re: Bingo - The moving cache race for 2012/2013

Post by Richary » 05 December 12 9:38 pm

nutwood wrote:We're endeavouring to get controls in place so any geocacher leaving the State is searched and if they are found to be carrying a Bingo cache, it is confiscated and returned to it's last known hiding place.
So those enthusiastic airport beaglies are going to be outbound as well now? Hmmm, I will have to come up with a strategy involving lots of fake fruit they are trained to detect to distract them!

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caughtatwork
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Re: Bingo - The moving cache race for 2012/2013

Post by caughtatwork » 05 December 12 9:44 pm

caughtatwork wrote:
WanderingAus wrote:
caughtatwork wrote:
spatialriq wrote:Is there any way to draft a new cache but have it assigned a specific number?
No there isn't.
Numbers are are assigned sequentially on a "next number" basis.
Luck is all you have.
Yep, I was using luck, if I was one or two down I did more, missed several by one (got 33 to 39, (WA has a 32), needed 42 but 2y'stassies got it, needed 47 but Mandina206 got it, needed 48 and 50 but Unknown/unlisted cache got them (GA5348 and GA5350) and I got 49 not needed by me or WA.

Any chance I can get GA5348 and GA5350? I've got the themes for them already.
GA5348 is owned by 2y'stassies.
GA5358 is owned by 2y'stassies.
You can barter with them.
Depends on how much 2y'stassies will allow the WA folks to build up their bingo cards :mrgreen:
If both sides agree I can transfer ownership.
GA5348 now belongs to WanderingAus

nutwood
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Re: Bingo - The moving cache race for 2012/2013

Post by nutwood » 05 December 12 10:04 pm

Richary wrote:
nutwood wrote:We're endeavouring to get controls in place so any geocacher leaving the State is searched and if they are found to be carrying a Bingo cache, it is confiscated and returned to it's last known hiding place.
So those enthusiastic airport beaglies are going to be outbound as well now? Hmmm, I will have to come up with a strategy involving lots of fake fruit they are trained to detect to distract them!
Outbound involves enthusiastic robots with magnets!

WanderingAus
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Re: Bingo - The moving cache race for 2012/2013

Post by WanderingAus » 05 December 12 10:20 pm

caughtatwork wrote: GA5348 now belongs to WanderingAus
Thanks heaps 2y'stassies and caughtatwork.

This is a real sign of our community working together. =D> =D> =D>

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FelixII
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Re: Bingo - The moving cache race for 2012/2013

Post by FelixII » 05 December 12 11:09 pm

Hmmmm I hope that didn't cost too much WanderingAus :shock:

Coz WA already had 4848.....

But there is still lots of numbers the State do need. :-#


In particular 47 any offers to swap for 47 [-o< [-o< [-o< [-o< [-o< [-o<

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Black Bunny
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Re: Bingo - The moving cache race for 2012/2013

Post by Black Bunny » 06 December 12 6:28 am

FelixII wrote: In particular 47 any offers to swap for 47 [-o< [-o< [-o< [-o< [-o< [-o<
Come in number 47, your time is up.

nutwood
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Re: Bingo - The moving cache race for 2012/2013

Post by nutwood » 06 December 12 11:12 am

FelixII wrote:Hmmmm I hope that didn't cost too much WanderingAus :shock:

Coz WA already had 4848.....

But there is still lots of numbers the State do need. :-#


In particular 47 any offers to swap for 47 [-o< [-o< [-o< [-o< [-o< [-o<
Interestingly, at my last tally, we've only got one #47 in Tasmania. I hid it this morning, along with thirty six other caches along several kilometres of riverside walking track. I think in total there were thirty two unique numbers there.
I wonder what the odds would be that someone could take a short walk and fill an entire card in one hit!

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SamCarter
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Re: Bingo - The moving cache race for 2012/2013

Post by SamCarter » 06 December 12 1:40 pm

nutwood wrote: I hid <snip> thirty six other caches along several kilometres of riverside walking track. I think in total there were thirty two unique numbers there.
I wonder what the odds would be that someone could take a short walk and fill an entire card in one hit!
Okay -- life is currently getting in the way of playing this game as a cacher at the moment, but I can at least indulge a lunchtime maths distraction.

For the following to make sense (YMMV) we need the idea of the "choose" function from maths. If, for example, I have 5 numbers -- say {0, 1, 2, 3, 4} -- and I let you choose 2 of them, then you could end up with any one of the following 10 possibilities: {0,1}, {0,2}, {0,3}, {0,4}, {1,2}, {1,3}, {1,4}, {2,3}, {2,4}, {3,4}. Of course, it's a real pain to have to list all of them just to find out how many there are. The "choose" function is a function that calculates that number without having to list-and-count. In this case, we're doing "5 choose 2", which counts how many different ways of picking 2 numbers out of the 5 numbers I made available to you. I'm going to write this as 5 C 2, and so we've seen that 5 C 2 = 10. I should note that in proper maths books 5 C 2 is normally written with the 5 superscripted and the 2 subscripted (or as a 5 above a 2 inside big parentheses) ... but I can't find the BBCode that works here to do that.

So, with this idea in mind, let's look at nutwood's opportunity ...

There are 32 unique numbers hiding along the track. Since a bingo card has 25 numbers on it then there are 32 C 25 different cards that would be filled if you went for a walk on the track (because the 25 numbers on them have been chosen from the 32 cache numbers on the track).
This is 3,365,856 possible cards.

The trouble is, have YOU got such a card?

The cards YOU get in the game are made by selecting 25 numbers from 100 possibilities (the numbers 00, 01, 02, ... , 98, 99). This means that there are 100 C 25 different cards.

The fun thing about combinatorics (the fancy maths name for counting arrangements and combinations of things) is that you pretty soon end up with some big numbers. In our situation 100 C 25 turns out to be ... wait for it ... 242519269720337121015504 or about 2.425 × 10^23 or just under half of Avagadro's number or -- in short -- a helluva lot.

So, your chances of having one of the awesomely-good-for-walking-along the-creek cards (if you only have one card) is 3,365,856/242519269720337121015504 or about 1.4 × 10^-17 or 0.000000000000000014. If you have 5 cards, then you are five times as likely to have an awesomely-good-for-walking-along the-creek card, but since we're dealing with a number that is pretty much next to nothing, then multiplying it by 5 doesn't help overly much (but it IS better than only having one card!).

Just to give you a sense of the scale of things, you are FAAAAARRRR more likely to win Tattslotto (assuming you buy a ticket, of course), since you have a 1 in (45 C 6) chance of getting the 6 numbers from the 45 that they have. This turns out to be 1 in 8,145,060, or about 0.000000123, which is still tiny (and makes NOT buying a ticket the eminently more sensible option) but it's MAAASSIIVELY bigger than the chances of getting instant gratification from playing cache bingo walking along nutwood's creek.

An additional outcome of this analysis is that it proves that there is scope for plenty more people to play ... like ... hmmm ... trillions of times the population of the entire planet! Does caughtatwork's ambition know no bounds?

This also explains -- for once and for all -- why you're all going to have to go out and hunt down specific caches. If you just go by doing things randomly, then you'll have to hunt for a helluvalot of random caches to increase your chances of finding the 25 you need to fill your card.

* Caveat emptor: I always get a bit terrified when I post technical stuff online -- especially when I am tired or eating my lunch -- because there is a chance -- much MUCH bigger than any of the chances mentioned above -- that I will (a) make a mistake and/or (b) fill the post with rambly waffle riddled with parenthetical comments. I have tried to take care about part (a); I gave up on part (b).

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gmj3191
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Re: Bingo - The moving cache race for 2012/2013

Post by gmj3191 » 06 December 12 1:53 pm

Like we're going to check that ....????

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CraigRat
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Re: Bingo - The moving cache race for 2012/2013

Post by CraigRat » 06 December 12 2:00 pm

nutwood wrote: Interestingly, at my last tally, we've only got one #47 in Tasmania. I hid it this morning, along with thirty six other caches along several kilometres of riverside walking track. I think in total there were thirty two unique numbers there.
I wonder what the odds would be that someone could take a short walk and fill an entire card in one hit!
Oh dear! - is it the 'several kilometres of riverside walking track' I'm used to walking????

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caughtatwork
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Re: Bingo - The moving cache race for 2012/2013

Post by caughtatwork » 06 December 12 2:06 pm

SamCarter wrote:
nutwood wrote: I hid <snip> thirty six other caches along several kilometres of riverside walking track. I think in total there were thirty two unique numbers there.
I wonder what the odds would be that someone could take a short walk and fill an entire card in one hit!
Okay -- life is currently getting in the way of playing this game as a cacher at the moment, but I can at least indulge a lunchtime maths distraction.
Wow. Maybe I should get some henchmen and start a volcano lair. I had no idea the game had that many possibilities. It also explains why out of the 20 or 30 so I have found, I've got, maybe 5 ticks. Hmmm. More planning needed.

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Cheesy pigs
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Re: Bingo - The moving cache race for 2012/2013

Post by Cheesy pigs » 06 December 12 2:55 pm

Now my brain is crying ](*,)

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spatialriq
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Re: Bingo - The moving cache race for 2012/2013

Post by spatialriq » 06 December 12 3:30 pm

If anyone's interested I now have 5429-31, 33,34, 36-38. I was after 32,35 and 39 so needed to grab those around them to get ... them.

Anyway, if C@W can make it happen they're yours!

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